Abstract
For centuries, policymakers and military leaders alike have wrestled with the idea of winning wars with minimal casualties. If they could be certain when the enemy would capitulate or when they would stand and fight, it would help them weigh the cost of conflict with the desired outcome. This paper explores the idea that capitulation can be predicted if certain coercive elements are present. In particular, the focus of this paper is to determine if there are specific pre-measurable indicators that suggest capitulation is more or less likely. The results are striking in their simplicity and applicability. Measures of cultural comparability are significant predictors of future failed coercive actions.
Key Words: [coercive diplomacy] [Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions]